The UN has projected that by 2030 the world population will be 8.5 billion and 9.7 billion people by 2050. According to the report, at least four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa. Around 2100, Nigeria is projected to overtake China as the second-most populous country in the world, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 2020 report.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), came up with the World Population Peak report (2020) stating that the largest increases in population between 2020 and 2100 will take place in– India, Nigeria, US, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Tanzania. The report said that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100, contrary to the 2019 UN report projecting the world population to steadily rise over the years.
According to the UN, the world population is set to steadily rise over the years:
- 2030: 8.5 billion
- 2050: 9.7 billion
- 2100: 10.9 billion
However, IHME paints a different picture, projecting the population to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100, approximately 2 billion fewer than previously thought. “More than half of the projected shrink in the global population up to 2100 will be concentrated in China, Indonesia, and Brazil, with China’s total population projected to drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100,” the report said.
Sub-Saharan Africa growth projection
Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century’s end, the report said. In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report highlighted the higher life expectancies, migration rates, and lower fertility rates as few reasons for projections of the population growth, with claims that by 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.