Nigeria Records Ninth Disinflation – NBS

Nigeria’s inflation projected to cross 12% threshold. Nigeria has recorded its ninth consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) enthused in Abuja. The Bureau’s observation is contained in the breakdown of inflation analysis through its Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The CPI measured that inflation increased by 15.91 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2017, lower than the rate recorded in September (15.98) per cent making it the ninth consecutive disinflation since January 2017.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.76 per cent in October 2017, 0.02 per cent points lower from the rate of 0.78 per cent recorded in September. This represents the fifth consecutive month-on-month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017. Specifically, the Food Index increased by 20.31 per cent (year-on-year) in October, down marginally by 0.01 per cent points from the rate recorded in September (20.32 per cent).

NBS released the 5th Round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS 5) showing a slight decrease in prices of some basic products.

The selected food price watch data for October 2017 reflected that the average price of 1 dozen of eggs medium size increased year-on-year by 0.02% and decreased month-on-month by -3.01% to N472.85 in October 2017 from N487.51 in September 2017.

While the average price of piece of Agriculture eggs medium size (price of one) increased year-on-year by 0.08% and decreased month-on-month by –7.99% to N42.06 in October 2017 from N45.72 in September 2017. The average price of 1kg of tomato increased year-on-year by 4.37% and decreased month-on-month by 9.57% to N291.53 in October 2017 from N322.39 in September 2017.

The average price of 1kg of rice (imported high quality sold loose) decreased year-on-year by 5.12% and month-on-month by 7.31% to N368.90 in October 2017 from N398.01 in September 2017. Similarly, the average price of 1kg of yam tuber increased year-on-year by 10.22% and decreased month-on-month by 13.38% to N223.63 in October 2017 from N259.51 in September 2017. However, there is slight increase in price of automobile gas oil, especially diesel, depending on the state.

Average price paid by consumers for automotive gas oil (diesel) increased by 9.28% month-on-month and 7.85% year-on-year to N201.96 in October 2017 from N184.80 in September 2017. States with the highest average price of diesel were Jigawa (N222.08) Zamfara (N218.75) and Adamawa (N217.50).

States with the lowest average price of diesel were Cross River (N190.29), Delta (N190.06) and Borno (N189.69). According to the NBS, the field work was done solely by over 700 staff in all states of the federation supported by supervisors who were monitored by internal and external observers. Prices were collected across all the 774 local governments across all States and the FCT from over 10,000 respondents and locations and reflect actual prices households state they actually bought those products together with the prices reportedly sold by the fuel suppliers.

The average of all these prices is then reported for each state and the average for the country is the average for the state. NBS audit team subsequently conducts randomly selected verification of prices recorded.

Dr. Yemi Kale, the Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of NBS, launched the MIC5 which he said the planning, design and implementation have been in the works for over the last three years.

“The planning and preparation for this exercise, has been the longest and most detailed for any major household survey we’ve executed during my tenure. “It is heart-warming to finally see the results of all that backbreaking, long-hours and sleepless nights come to fruition.’’

He said that the MICS survey is over 22 years old, and has now become the largest source of statistically sound and internationally comparable data on women and children worldwide, focusing on issues such as health, education, child protection, water and sanitation, amongst others.

The survey also serves as a major source of data in establishing the baseline for the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda to measure the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators.

In Nigeria, the MICS program started in 1995, with the first round conducted by the old Federal Office of Statistics, now National Bureau of Statistics. Since its inception, a total of 5 rounds have now been conducted by NBS with support from UNICEF, and it is the result of the 5th round that we are here to officially launch this afternoon.



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